The S-curve defines innovation, but where is your company on it?
Ask any expert about the history of technology, and they’ll point you towards the “S-curve.” It’s shorthand for four steps: first, the technology emerges, as a sort of gestation period. Next, it rapidly improves as people find a use for it, and in some cases, it overheats. Then, as it becomes fully developed, it declines before rising again to become ubiquitous, but also not noticed. Think of how the internet was going to revolutionize everything, then it actually revolutionized everything, and now we don’t care. So how does this apply to innovation, and what can we learn?
Following The Curve
Consistently successful companies hop from S-curve to S-curve, but they hop in different ways. Some start with the emergence phase; they get in on a technology and get actively involved in finding a use for it in some way. Some companies actively look for these opportunities. Others are simply looking for a solution to a problem, and it becomes successful in its own right. Harry Coover, the inventor of Super Glue, is a good example: He tried to create a new type of gunsight, and he spent 16 years dealing with this absurdly sticky goop until he realized it was useful for forming bonds without heat, changing the field of adhesives entirely.
In other cases, companies combine multiple mature technologies to create a new S-curve. Nintendo’s best-selling console, the Switch, is a superb example of this, cobbling together cheap tablet technology, wireless controllers, and other commonplace electronics into a smash-hit video game console that’s rapidly gaining ground in its industry.
So, with innovation strategy, it’s a matter of asking two questions: Where are you on this particular S-curve? And where do you see the next one?
Where are fresh ideas on your curve?
Tracking The Curve
The answer to the first question usually stands out. If you’ve got new competitors starting up every week, if you’re getting calls from clients, if you see innovations in your industry on Google News every day, you’re in the growth phase, and your question should be where to go when that ends. Similarly, if your technology is well-established and growth is slow but steady, you’re probably at the end of this particular S-curve.
The answer to the second question is more complicated, and there may not be an easy answer. For example, in the early 2000s, automakers were presented with the first viable commercial “hybrid” vehicle, the Toyota Prius. However, their reactions were wildly varied, to the point where the Prius was for years one of the few hybrid options on the road. In fact, one can argue the hybrid had an exceptionally short s-curve as the industry has largely skipped over hybrid technology and gone straight for electric vehicles, with giants like GM and smaller companies like Volvo attempting to go entirely electric in the next few years.
Ask yourself: What’s the natural progression? What’s the most intriguing use of your current ideas? What are the tough problems left to solve in your industry? Then, look for the curves. By tracking them, you’ll be able to find where the next big innovation will be. To learn more about S-curves and innovation, get the Innovation Starter Kit.
